Could Gracie Abrams catch Shaboozey before he makes the Hot 100 record?

The contenders is a midweek column that examines artists aiming for the top Bulletin board charts and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 23, we examine the chances of a fast-rising hit to end the increasingly historic reign of the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 of the decade.

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It's now been 17 weeks for Shaboozey at the top of the Hot 100, giving him sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade and second all-time. The only song still standing in the way of standing alone at the top of the Hot 100's history: Lil Nas X's “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the upcoming release of his new single 'Light Again', although it remains to be seen if he still has the viral skills to protect his own chart record — 'J Christ', his first 2024 release, peaked at No. 69. )

Anyway, it's the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which mostly slipped in its weekly performance — though it actually rose 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No.7 to No.3 on the Digital Songs Sales Chart – but it's not falling fast enough for anything below that to really catch on. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week on Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song may get a little heated this week from the Grammy nominations announced on Friday (November 8), where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for ” Bar”.

Gracie Abrams, “That's So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in a long time, there's an up-and-coming hit with legitimate momentum coming behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams' “That's So True” didn't sound like an unlikely crowd when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her set. Our secretbut it's continued to grow each week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week and even surpassing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs as it climbs to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as does a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, which hit DSPs last week. (It also helps that we have the world's longest tour as a back-to-back platform, as Abrams continues to open Canadian dates on Taylor Swift's Eras tour through early December.)

Now, the song has surpassed the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music's real-time chart, while climbing just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could propel it into the Hot 100's 10 next week – and so far, it's just keeping climbing. The question of whether he could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey may come down to radio — of course, “A Bar Song” has a huge advantage as the most played song in country, while “That's So The True” is just starting to pick up airplay, behind Abrams’ other contemporary hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I'm Sorry.” But “True” is slowly gaining steam there as well, so if it continues to grows while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before long.

Can he catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the holiday season begins? We'll see, but if nothing else, it should make the fight more exciting in the meantime.

Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, 'Die With a Smile' (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, 'Birds of a Feather' (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It's a good week for Interscope on the charts, as between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists are also likely recipients of Grammy nominations Friday's : “Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish — a Grammy favorite since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 on her debut album — has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit hard and soft and song and record of the year for 'Birds of a Feather'.

Both songs should remain in the mix atop the Hot 100 next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board – “Feather” tops Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” may challenge for its first week in the next frame of Streaming Songs. But it's unclear whether either has the chops to help overcome the slump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy contender, hitting there for either is unlikely to be significant enough to to make a difference.