Is Elliot Grainge's Atlantic Move Part Of Big Label Youthquake?

For most of the past decade, three labels have dominated the US recorded music business: Universal Music Group's Republic and Interscope, and Warner Music Group's Atlantic. So on August 1, when Warner announced that it had set as part of a management change Eliot Grange as CEO of Atlantic Music Group, the move came as a surprise. Co-chairs Julie Greenwald and Craig Kalman had led Atlantic for two decades through the music industry's most difficult years, becoming two of the most respected executives in the industry. Now, after two years of declining market share, leadership will pass to a 30-year-old executive who hails from outside the major label system.

Within a week, Greenwald, who had been named president of Atlantic Music Group, announced she planned to leave at the end of January. (Kallman, one of the greatest A&Rs of all time, will remain CEO of Atlantic Records under Grainge.) And the entire business seems to be wondering, What does this mean? It's a big gamble for WMG's CEO Robert Kyncl. Grainge, the son of UMG's chairman/CEO Lucian Graingehe has an impressive track record of success on a smaller scale, but not quite on the kind of scale that major labels usually operate on. What's going on?

The obvious answer is that this is the acceleration of a young earthquake in the music industry. Streaming payments are disproportionately driven by younger listeners who spend more time online. The industry's top executives aren't getting any younger, and the music industry has never been much for succession planning.

One industry executive I spoke to sarcastically asked if I thought Grainge was familiar with Ruth Brown, the R&B icon who had so many hits in the 1950s that Atlantic was nicknamed “the house that Ruth built.” , in a nod to Yankee Stadium. I have no idea, but I also know that most young listeners don't, so as much as it pains me to say this, maybe it doesn't matter that much. Greenwald is now considered an industry leader, but she was no bigger than Grainge is now when she became president of Island Records in 2002.

Grainge seems to have a knack for spotting artists who are building an online audience and putting resources behind them in a smart way. Is his 10K Projects, which became part of WMG last year, a model for the label of the future? He hasn't built the careers of any well-known superstars, which has been the traditional strength of the majors, although some of the acts he's signed, like Ice Spice, are still on the rise.

Just two years ago, the trend lines seemed clear: hip hop was taking the world by storm, not only growing but also shaping emerging genres from Latin urbano on Afrobeats. Now it's a little harder to figure out what works. Pop is getting bigger, but so is country. Latin is growing faster than ever, but even there tastes are changing. And fans are more fickle than ever. Katy Perry's comeback falters. Dua Lipa's seemingly certain new album got off to a slow start. Are listeners hungry for new artists? Perhaps. But Sabrina Carpenter released her first album before Dua did. Only Taylor Swift can handle it. As for everyone else, all we are is dust in the wind.

In this uncertainty, it's tempting to think that someone must have the answers — especially if that person is young. Of course, the feeling goes, I I don't understand what's going on, but I bet this guy does. And maybe it does! Grainge has built a successful company by focusing on finding, developing and marketing talent in the digital world. Big companies have generally made bigger bets that have paid off, or not, in a bigger way. That's harder to do now — there are fewer real superstars, in part because there are fewer real paths to superstardom.

But it may be more important than ever. Hit albums remain more popular than ever, building on the success of previous music by the same artist. Of the top 10 albums of the first half of 2024, Morgan Wallen had two of them, one each from 2021 and 2023. Zach Bryan's 2023 album was the 8th biggest of the first half of 2024, so it could very well have two of the biggest releases this year. (This top 10 list for the first half of 2024 has only seven artists.)

This is the kind of success Grainge needs to bring to the Atlantic, whether it comes from new acts or old bets, big or small doubling up on the label, or some combination of the two. All the questions this raises for the future of the music business — What does this mean? What's going on? — will be answered, at least to some extent, by how he does.