Kendrick Lamar already has 17 Grammys to his name and could add several more if “Not Like Us” dominates the Grammy nominations announcement next month (Nov. 8).
A strong contender for both record and song of the year, the Billboard Hot 100-top diss track also leads the rap categories for best rap song and best rap performance. If “Not Like Us” takes gold in both of those categories, it would become Lamar's fifth track to achieve the feat, following “I” (2015), “Alright” (2016), “Humble” (2018) and “The Heart Part 5” (2023).
As can be the case in all genres, there has been quite a bit of overlap between performance and songwriting categories in rap over the years. Since the introduction of the Best Rap Performance category in 2012 – several more specific categories condensed into a major overhaul of the ceremony – eight songs have triumphed both there and for Best Rap Song, which was introduced in 2004. In addition to Lamar's wins, the Other winners include “N—as in Paris” by Jay-Z & Kanye West (2013), “Thrift Shop” by Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (2014), “Savage” by Megan Thee Stallion & Beyoncé (2021) and Killer Mike, Future, André 3000 and Eryn Allen Kane's “Scientists & Engineers” (2024).
Before the categories were restructured, two Best Rap Song winners — Jay-Z, Rihanna and West's “Run This Town” (2010) and Jay-Z & Alicia Keys' “Empire State of Mind” (2011) — also won the best rap/sung performance (now called best melodic rap performance); In 2004, Eminem's “Lose Yourself” won Best Rap Song—making him the inaugural winner in that category—and Best Male Rap Solo Performance.
But what tracks could block “Not Like Us” from sweeping the rap scene? Let's break down the top contenders in both categories.
Best rap song
First, there is the question of “Like this.” If Lamar's Hot 100-topping collaboration with Future & Metro Boomin wins both Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance, Lamar would still earn his fifth double-whammy. Should both “Not Like Us” and “Like That” earn best rap song nods, Lamar would increase his tally to 10 career nods in that category — the fourth most of all time. A nod for “Like That” would earn Future his fourth nomination in this category and Metro Boomin his first.
Two non-Lamar Hot 100 chart-toppers could also get nods here: Megan Thee Stallion's “Hiss” and Ye & Ty Dolla $ign's “Carnival.” Megan remains the first and only female rapper to win this category, and a nod for “Hiss” would be her first nomination in this category for a solo song. Ye (formerly known as Kanye West) has the most wins in the history of this category (7). A 'Carnival' nod here would be the seventeenth — the most of all time — and Ty Dolla $ign's first. “Carnival” could also earn a first career Grammy nod for Don Toliver and Playboi Carti, who are credited songwriters and artists on the track.
Carti is also in contention via Travis Scott's “FE!N,” which reached No. 5 on the Hot 100 in 2023. The duo performed the track on the 2024 Grammy telecast, where its parent album, Billboard 200-top Utopia lost Best Rap album to Killer Mike's Michael. Between his Circus Maximus world tour and a historic reissue of his decade Days before the Rodeo mixtape, Travis has been steady this year. Killer Mike, on the other hand, could close out his 2024 win in this category with “Humble Me.”
Two other huge 2024 Hot 100 hits — Jack Harlow's “Lovin On Me” (No. 1) and Tommy Richman's “Million Dollar Baby” (No. 2) — are also very strong contenders. Richman is seeking his first Grammy nod, while Harlow is looking to earn his second nod in the category after “Churchill Downs” (featuring Drake) in 2023.
There are also a number of other notable Hot 100 hits in contention, including: Sexyy Red's “Get It Sexy” (No. 20), Nicki Minaj's “FTCU” (No. 15), “Yeah Glo GloRilla's (No. 28), Flo Milli's 'Never Lose Me' (No. 15), Doja Cat's 'Demons' (No. 46), Lil Baby & Central Cee's 'Band4Band' (No. 18), Cardi B's “Enough” (No. 9). ) and 21 Savage's “Redrum” (No. 5). Both Lil Baby and Cardi B are looking for their second nominations in this category, while Minaj and Doja are aiming for their third. 21 Savage, who won this category alongside J. Cole for “A Lot” in 2020, is looking to earn his fourth nomination in this category. Of these contenders, Hot Girl Summer, Megan Thee Stallion, and GloRilla are probably the strongest contenders, but both have a more favorable track record for Best Rap Performance.
As always, there are also some dark horses to watch out for. Rapsody, a previous nominee in this category for “Sassy” in 2018, could earn a nomination for “Asteroids,” while ScHoolboy Q could earn his first nod in this category with “Thank God 4 Me”. Eminem is the inaugural winner of this category and has since added four additional nominations. “Tobey” (featuring Big Sean and BabyTron) could earn Slim Shady his first Best Rap Song nod since 2019, when the Joyner Lucas-assisted “Lucky You” earned a nomination. Lucas is also in contention with his Jelly Roll duet, “Best for Me,” which earned a nod for Best Video for Good at last month's MTV Video Music Awards. Finally, Common could earn his second nomination in this category with “When the Sun Shines Again” (featuring Pete Rock and Posdnuos).
Our fearless prediction
So, which five songs have the best chance of being nominated in this Grammy category? The field of rap is always unpredictable, but here nothing goes: “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “Lovin On Me” (Jack Harlow), “Like That” (Future, Metro Boomin & Lamar), “Asteroids” (Rhapsody ) and “Carnival” (Ye, Ty Dolla $ign, Don Toliver & Playboi Carti)
Best Rap Performance
Given the history of overlap between Best Rap Song and Best Rap Performance, most of the aforementioned songs are also nominated in this category. Some other Hot 100 hits to watch for are Bryson Tiller's “Whatever She Wants” (No. 19), Eminem's “Houdini” (No. 2) and Megan Thee Stallion and Yuki Chiba's “Mamushi” ( No. 36). A nod in that category would be a first for Tiller and Chiba. Also in contention here with “Hiss,” Megan is looking to add to her two previous nominations in this category. Eminem has earned 12 career nods in rap performance categories. He has won Best Rap Solo Performance three times, as well as one win for Best Male Rap Solo Performance and two wins for Best Rap Performance by a Duo or Group.
Other strong contenders include Doechii's “Nissan Altima,” Latto's “S/O to Me,” LL Cool J & Eminem's “Murdergram Deux,” Big Sean's “Yes,” and ScHoolboy Q's “Blueslides.” .
Our fearless prediction
So which five songs have the best chance of being nominated in this category? I predict: “Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar), “HISS” (Megan Thee Stallion), “Like That” (Future, Metro Boomin & Lamar), “Murdergram Deux” (LL Cool J & Eminem) and “Yeah Glo” (GloRilla)
from our partners at https://www.billboard.com/music/awards/grammy-nominations-best-rap-song-performance-kendrick-lamar-predictions-1235800483/