A summer slowdown in the new Billboard Hot 100 top 10s was followed by a near-autumn freeze.
Over the past three months, among the Hot 100 charts dating from early July through Oct. 19, only seven songs have posted new peaks in the top 10, led by Shaboozey's “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” for a 14-week active reign – the third longest this decade – starting on July 13.
The other six such Hot 100 top 10s in that span (pending further climb): Morgan Wallen's “Lies Lies Lies” (No. 7 peak, July 20); “Die With a Smile” by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars (No. 3, Aug. 31); Sabrina Carpenter's “Taste” (No. 2, Sept. 7); The “Good Luck, Babe!” by Chappell Roan! (No. 4, Sept. 28). Billie Eilish's “Birds of a Feather” (No. 2, Oct. 12); and The Weeknd and Playboi Carti's “Timeless” (No. 3, Oct. 12).
The tracks have earned entry into a very exclusive club of long-running Hot 100 top 10 hits in that stretch, including Teddy Swims' “Lose Control,” which has stayed in the chart for 39 weeks and continues to tie for the fifth longest top 10 remains in the chart archives. Additionally, Carpenter's “Espresso” and Benson Boone's “Beautiful Things,” at Nos. 4 and 10, respectively, on the latest chart have spent 25 weeks in the top 10, while “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has collect a stool in the area for 24 weeks.
The stretch of two songs notching new Hot 100 top 10 highs so far in October, following two each in September and July and one in August, represents the three-month period with the longest fallow period for turnover in the top tier than on the charts entire 66-year history.
In further perspective, “Die With a Smile” in August ended a nearly five-year streak of multiple Hot 100 top 10s that have posted new peaks every month since. In November 2018, Ariana Grande's “Thank U, Next” was the only track to do so when the seven-week rule began. Overall, such inactivity in the top 10 is rare. March 2009 saw one hit reach a new high (“Gives You Hell” by The All-American Rejects), while January 2002 marks the only monthly shutout ever. (Eilish wasn't quite ready to continue the streak yet, having given birth the previous month.)
The current trend of hits repeating in the top 10 of the Hot 100 isn't necessarily a bad thing — every week in the chart's history features exactly 10 in demand top 10s, regardless of their age. There's also a chicken-and-egg element involved: Are the big hits so strong that newer songs can't top them, or are the challengers just not up to par? In any case, a select group of established hits—many polymorphic smashes strong in streaming, airplay, and sales—are preventing new songs from crossing the upper reaches of the chart at a pace consistent with the past.
What's behind the relative lack of movement in the Hot 100's top 10 since early summer? Below are five seemingly key factors.
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Country Strong
Image source: Eric Ryan Anderson
Shaboozey's “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has strengthened its dominance on the Hot 100 thanks in part to historic crossover success, becoming the first song ever to enter the top 10 on the Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay.
The track became only the third song ever to top both Country Airplay and Pop Airplay — replacing the second to accomplish the feat, Post Malone's “I Had Some Help,” featuring Morgan Wallen.
Country has forged prominent recent chart mandates, thanks in part to Wallen. “I Had Some Help” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” finished at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, on the Songs of the Summer 2024 chart (based on Hot 100 performance between Memorial Day and Labor Day), marking the second year in a row—and ever—that the genre claimed the top two songs of the season.
Meanwhile, of the three longest Hot 100 No. 1s this decade, two are country hits that found favor with pop audiences: Wallen's “Last Night” (16 weeks, 2023) and his breakthrough hit Shaboozey.
“The passion for this song is almost unheard of,” Travis Daily, Cumulus Media's vice president of country, said recently. Bulletin board of “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” “Some country programmers don't like it when pop stations play our country hits. I would argue that songs like this give me a chance to convert some audiences into fans of the best genre in the world, which is obviously country.”
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Carpenter built a wall
Image credit: Bryce Anderson
Short n' Sweet led to a long, sweetly successful, Hot 100 top 10 run for Sabrina Carpenter.
Thanks to her first album at Billboard 200 No. 1, Carpenter has held a 30% share of the Hot 100's top 10 in each of the past seven weeks — the longest triple-digit streak by a woman in the chart's history and the longest by any act since Drake in 2018. In addition to ” Espresso,” the set's “Please Please Please,” her initial Hot 100 topper, spent its first 18 weeks on the chart in the top 10. In the past seven weeks, they've been joined by the latest single, “Taste.”
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Teddy still swims in “Control”
Image credit: Joseph Cultice
As noted above, Teddy Swims' “Lose Control” is tied for the fifth-longest top 10 in Hot 100 history. It is also one of only 28 hits to log 60 or more total weeks on the chart.
Like Shaboozey and Post Malone's Hot 100 No. 1, “Lose Control,” which led for a week in March, attracted unusual multi-format radio reach. It has ruled five airplay charts – Radio Songs, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay, Adult R&B Airplay and Adult Contemporary – becoming the first title to top all five surveys in nearly a decade.
“Teddy Swims is unique in today's music landscape,” opined Warner Records EVP of promotion and merchandising Mike Chester. “When we started promoting 'Lost Control', our journey was carefully planned. From the beginning, we noticed that the song resonated in different parts of the culture, creating a strong and diverse fan base.”
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The Billboard 200 No. 1s doesn't translate to the Hot 100
The availability of recent new music isn't a problem, as 24 albums have reached new heights in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 since the start of July. They just haven't cracked as many top 10s on the Hot 100 as you might expect.
However, two sets that debuted on the Billboard 200 in July did preview Hot 100 top 10s in June: Zach Bryan's The Great American Bar Scene (“Pink Skies”, No. 6) and Eminem The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce) (“Houdini”, No. 2).
Otherwise, among albums to reach the Billboard 200 in the past three-plus months, only Post Malone F-1 Tris and Carpenter's Short n' Sweet have made Hot 100 top 10s.
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Superstar Albums Sprung Earlier
To end on a positive note for fans who like to regularly refresh playlists, 2024 brought a lot of new hits. Turnover in the top 10 of the Hot 100 was just more concentrated in the first half of the year.
Six songs scored new peaks in the top 10 of the Hot 100 in January, followed by two in February, eight in March, 10 in April, 13 in May and five in June.
Number 13 should be a clue, as Taylor Swift stormed the entire top 10, tying her own record, on the May 4 Hot 100 with songs from her latest album, Department of Tormented Poets. Before that, Future and Metro Boomin collaborated for five new top 10s on the April 6 chart, from We Don't Trust You set, while Beyoncé collected two top 10s a week later from her album Cowboy Carter.
Big hits in all three Hot 100 metrics, as well as those that find support among fans of multiple genres, can become mainstays in the top 10 for months. However, given the chart's history, the recent slowdown in new top 10s could be a reversible difference, with the chart perhaps just one or two superstar albums away from returning to a more typical stream of hits coming in steadily for the top competition.
from our partners at https://www.billboard.com/lists/hot-100-top-10-historic-holding-pattern/
