On a recent trip to New York, I spoke on a panel discussing the state of the global music industry. During the Q&A, someone asked, “When will the day come when Taylor Swift isn't the biggest artist in the world?”
Answer: It is not already.
Now, maybe it's a matter of perspective. From a Western perspective, it's a valid question. Given Swift's ubiquitous media coverage, it's hard to imagine a day when she's not at the top of our industry. In the past year alone, she has broken records, won awards and inspired fans. But her achievements are only part of the global picture.
The music industry is increasingly interconnected, with content moving across markets and access to that content expanding in ways many don't see. With this comes the opportunity to reach huge populations from emerging markets, whose focus is based on homegrown artists and local language content. I think a future where the next big global star emerges from somewhere other than the United States is upon us, and they won't be singing in English.
My confidence here is bolstered by my home, the United Arab Emirates, which sits at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and Europe and has a population representing more than 200 nationalities. I am deeply embedded in this region and its music industry and have had first-hand exposure to the evolution of music in these markets, watching the growing dominance of local language music and recognizing how it is reshaping pop culture. This change is happening quickly among listeners, subscription growth, access to music and more.
Evaluating a superstar from the West versus a superstar from the East is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Significant context is missing from the raw numbers, particularly the available flow metrics, which do not fully represent consumption in the East or revenue potential in the years to come.
Multinational streaming platforms have fully established themselves as the leaders in monetization. For example, Spotify has built a reputation as the market leader with more than 602 million monthly active users worldwide, 236 million of whom are paying. However, these multinational platforms are relatively new to the MENA region and other emerging markets and are still building a user base. In contrast, domestic streaming platforms in the wider region have taken longer to build a strong user base (eg India's Gaana has 200 million monthly active users), but their monetization has yet to catch up.
However, if we look at the sheer size of the market, the opportunity in emerging markets is undeniable. The populations of the US (330 million) and the UK (67 million) are dwarfed by those of India (1.4 billion), MENA (489 million people), Pakistan (243 million) or Nigeria (227 million ). Music consumption in some of these markets is already outpacing the West (in growth rate) and will soon outpace the West (in volume).
The data is there. Emerging markets are the main driver of global subscription growth from 2021 and Goldman Sachs 2024 Music in the Air reports that their contribution is expected to reach 70% by 2030. In Luminate's 2023 report they highlighted that the streaming volume of India grew by almost half a trillion in flows year-over-year versus 184 billion for the US At this rate, particularly as the US reaches a saturation point, we could see India overtake the US in consumption this year.
You might think that the increased availability and monetization of streaming platforms in emerging markets would translate into the Taylor Swifts of the West reaching even more listeners. The truth is that these listeners care more and more about their own homegrown stars and local music culture than what the West is exporting to them.
Launched worldwide in 2005, YouTube has long been the established music streaming and discovery service, thus more adequately reflecting music listening preferences in the region. Looking specifically at Swift, there is no doubt that she is extremely popular on the platform. On the YouTube World Music Charts for April 19-25 (the week her latest album was released), she was #1. However, eight of the Top 10 songs that week were actually non-English releases by artists from around the world. How many of you know the Bhojpuri hit “Maroon Color Sadiya” (which was #3 the same week)? Expand that to the Top 40 and only eight songs are in English. This is only on YouTube. consider the impact of additional domestic streaming platforms, which are even more skewed towards local language artists in each market.
Local language matters. The era of pop music defined as “Anglo-American” is over. Looking at streams per day in India in 2023, Statista found that Hindi accounted for over 40% compared to English's 25% share. Additionally, vernacular and local music, which made up the remaining 34%, was primarily the fastest growing genre from 2020 to 2023. In its 2023 report, Luminate highlighted how English-language music's share fell by 12% worldwide from 2021, while the share of Hindi music has practically doubled. Even in the US, the share of English-language content has declined by 3.8% since 2021.
The global diaspora that consumes Arabic, Hindi, and other world languages is also in the West, adding to the shift I describe. K-pop's meteoric transformation into a global phenomenon is a particularly strong example of this expansion, thanks to groups like BTS, BLACKPINK and Stray Kids. In addition to its huge following in Korea, the genre has swept the West, with Korean set to be the 3rd largest language by consumption in the US in 2023, according to Luminate.
So, is Taylor Swift really the biggest artist in the world? Given the shift I described in streaming adoption in emerging markets, the importance of domestic platforms, and the sheer fact that at the country level domestic operations dominate, the answer is no. Last time I checked, India, Pakistan, the Middle East, China and most of Africa have their own superstars — and they represent most of the inhabited world. There's no telling how high these local artists will rise before their stars eclipse stars like Swift in ways that become much more obvious to the rest of us.
Spek is the founder/CEO of PopArabia & ESMAA and the executive vice president of international and emerging markets at Reservoir. He recently got his name Advertising signof the 2024 International Power Players list, having previously appeared on the list in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
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