Will Kendrick Lamar's Drake Diss Go To No. 1 – And If So, Which One?

The contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top Advertising sign charts and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 18), the Kendrick Lamar-Drake beef that's dominated pop culture for the past month aims to also take over the Advertising sign diagrams.

Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Though it arrived as the fourth diss track in Kendrick Lamar's campaign against Drake — fifth if you count “Like That” — “Not Like Us” appears on track to become the rapper's biggest single since at least that original Future and Metro Boomin collab, which topped the Hot 100 in its first three weeks on the chart in April. Since debuting on Saturday night (May 4), the Mustard-produced banger has simply swept pop culture and is being played on NBA on TNT shows and as MLB walk-up music and inspired mash-ups and club chants and general hysteria from West Coast fans.

Audience response has been overwhelming enough that even with its late Saturday release — meaning it'll only get a little more than five days of consumption in its debut week — “Not Like Us” should still be going strong. contender for a No. 1 Hot 100 debut next week. The song topped virtually every relevant daily or real-time chart (including Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Trending and iTunes) and is currently still gaining steam, with the latest US Spotify surpassing 6.8 million games (for Tuesday, May 7) is the highest level.

The competition for the top spot will still be fierce in such a busy period for new hits, including other songs by Kendrick himself. But “Not Like Us” is far enough ahead of the competition right now to likely top next week's chart – and regardless, it's certainly on pace to be one of this year's defining hits, as well as a of Lamar's greatest songs. decade plus successful career.

Kendrick Lamar, “Euphoria” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Before the arrival of “Not Like Us,” it still looked like Lamar would have the inside track on the Hot 100 with the first take from his recent onslaught, “Euphoria.” That track, a brutal six-minute attack on Drake's character that also became a pop culture phenomenon upon its release two Tuesdays ago (April 30), managed to debut at No. 11 on this week's Hot 100 ( dated May 11) from just two and a half days of monitoring.

After its first full week of release, “Euphoria” should also be a major contender for the top of the Hot 100, as it's been holding strong near the top of most daily DSP charts for the past few days. (Both “Euphoria” and “Not Like Us” are just hitting radio, each pulling in more than a million airplay impressions in the first four days of its May 3-6 tracking week, according to Luminate.) With with 'Not Like Us' virtually ruling it as the popular favorite from this back-and-forth, however, 'Euphoria' may have missed its best chance at a No.1 spot and will likely have to settle for silver or bronze chart next week.

Kendrick Lamar, “Meet the Grahams” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Perhaps the nastiest of Lamar's rants against his rival, “Meet the Grahams” arrived Friday night (May 3), one day before “Not Like Us.” The song doesn't have the upbeat intensity of “Euphoria” or the sheer club-readiness of “Us,” so it hasn't caught on quite as much to the culture as those two certified hits. But its performance since hitting all DSPs on Sunday (after a YouTube-only debut) has been pretty remarkable – with the song currently in the top 10 on both the Spotify and Apple Music update charts, as well as the iTunes – so it should be ticketed for a pretty high debut on next week's Hot 100.

There is, of course, a fourth Lamar song from the song from last weekend's feud, on Friday morning's “6:16 in LA” — but that song was an Instagram-only release, meaning his streams they will not contribute to Advertising sign graph calculations and will not be eligible for graphs next week. However, “Like That” — the Future and Metro Boomin collaboration that started it all a month and a half ago — is still in the Hot 100's top 10 (No. 8 this week, after a three-week reign), and is rising to consumption following the stronger spotlight on beef, so he'll definitely be in the mix for next week (if he's no longer a likely contender for the top spot).

IN THE MIX

Drake, “Family Matters” (OVO/Republic): Don't forget the other guy in the beef! Although Drake is clearly behind both in terms of public opinion and total streams/sales in this back-and-forth – as well as total songs, with just two last weekend to Lamar's astonishing four – his “Family Matters” is still on pace for a very high retreat on the Hot 100, as the diss track released on Friday night still ranks in the top 10 on both Spotify and Apple Music. (Sunday night's next “The Heart Part 6” has only been released on YouTube so far.)

Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby” (ISO Supermacy/Pulse): You have to feel a little bit for Tommy Richman: If it weren't for the Kendrick-Drake showdown that generated more drama and attention than the entire NBA playoffs, it would very likely be the biggest story in the music world right now. The up-and-coming Virginia singer and rapper debuts at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week with his breakout hit “Million Dollar Baby,” and the song has climbed in streaming and airplay and sales in just its second week of. of liberation. But if interest in the beef (or at least Kendrick's musical part in it) falls off dramatically over the final two days of the viewing week, Richman will likely have to wait at least another week to climb into that final spot and take on the Hot top 100.