Will Shaboozey Tie Hot 100 No. 1 disc next week?

The contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top Bulletin board charts and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated November 30, we look at whether the longest-running No. 1 in 2024 is set to tie the record for the longest-running No. 1 of all time.

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It's graduation week for “A Bar Song” on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, as its reign at the top turns 18. The song is also currently moving toward a 17th week at No. 1 on Radio Songs – while last week, it recorded its 15th week at the top of the charts simultaneously, a new record for the longest double-double since Radio Songs began in 1990, surpassing Mariah's 'We Belong Together' Carey. It has also been top 10 on the Digital Songs Sales chart continuously since late April and on Streaming Songs since May. It has been in the top 10 on all three Hot 100 component charts, including Radio Songs, simultaneously every week since late June.

There's some reason to believe it's due for big drops or a rise before next week, where it'll reach an all-time record 19th week at No. 1 – possibly matching Lil Nas X's Billy Ray Cyrus with 'Old Town Road' from five years ago? Well, it fell further (though not terribly) this week in both streaming and radio airplay, although its sales were up 16%. The song's overall momentum heading into next week may hinge on tonight's (Nov. 20) CMA Awards, where Shaboozey is slated to perform and is up for single of the year (for “Bar Song”) and best new artist.

With a big night of driving consumption at the CMAs tonight (and with next week's charts reflecting consumption for the tracking week ending Thursday), the time may be right next week for Shaboozey to carve his name into Bulletin board history books.

Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite being three full months into its life at this point, “Die With a Smile” is still gaining momentum on the charts, reaching the top five on Radio Songs and No. 1 on Pop Airplay — the first time Gaga has reached those heights since 2011. The song's flow appears to be relatively flat over the past week, and it's currently discounted to 69 cents on iTunes — as is “A Bar Song” – so it should be a very close battle next week on the Hot 100 between the two. If Shaboozey does win a CMA, can Gaga and Bruno and their respective teams find a way before Friday to get their song a little more hype? These questions may determine the winner in a closely watched Hot 100 race next week.

Gracie Abrams, “That's So True” (Interscope/ICLG): After topping Streaming Songs and entering the Hot 100's top 10 for the first time this week, “That's So True” has become the first truly undisputed smash of Gracie Abrams' career. The song's streaming growth seems to be slowing this week – so it may not challenge for No. 1 just next week — but it's gotten big enough that Abrams' Interscope label has begun shifting its radio efforts (previously focused on “Close to You” and “I Love You, I'm Sorry”) to it. If radio starts playing “True” like streaming has, there's likely no upper limit to how high the song can continue to climb for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): As the weather cools down, Mariah Carey is just starting to get stronger. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is starting to get its usual seasonal airplay and jumps from 34 to 21 on this week's Streaming Songs chart — its highest-ranking entry of the holiday season — and will continue to climb in the weeks leading up to Come. “All I Want” could re-enter the Hot 100 — maybe even the top 10 — starting next week, and it's only a matter of time before it becomes the first to reign again during the holiday season for a sixth consecutive calendar year. And if he does… he's already racked up a total of 14 weeks at No. 1, so it might not be long before he enters the all-time record conversation with Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus (and soon enough, possibly Shaboozey).