Will Zach Bryan's “The Great American Bar Scene” be the album that catapults Taylor Swift to the top of the Billboard 200?

The contenders is a midweek column that examines artists aiming for the top Advertising sign diagrams and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for next Billboard 200 dated July 20), Taylor Swift is aiming to secure her longest No. 1 run to date, but she may be interrupted by another star's new set.

Zac Bryan, The Great American Bar Scene (Belting Bronco/Warner): The 2020s marked a long rise to superstardom for singer-songwriter Zach Bryan. The country and Americana artist's streaming and live act presence grew from project to project, with his breakthrough breakthrough coming in 2022 with American Heart Break album and hit single 'Something in the Orange' and then hit a new high in 2023 with his self-titled Billboard 200 set and accompanying Kacey Musgraves Billboard Hot 100 collaboration 'I Remember Everything'. Now, in the midst of a US tour of arenas and stadiums, Bryan is releasing his first album as an undisputed A-lister: The Great American Bar Scene.

The new 18-track set already has a major hit in lead single “Pink Skies,” which debuted at No. 6 on the Hot 100 in June and is still hovering around the chart's top 15 this week, and a second Hot 100 entry “Purple Gas”, which features Noeline Hofmann (and is a reprise of a song she originally wrote and recorded); The record also features first-time collaborations with a pair of artists who have extensive chart histories of their own — John Mayer on “Better Days” and Bruce Springsteen on “Sandpaper” — and already has something of a breakout hit in its own right on the shuffling ballad. “28”, which is still in the top 10 on both Spotify's Daily Top Songs USA chart and Apple Music's real-time chart. (If Springsteen's track debuts on the Hot 100, it will mark his first entry since 2009, and if it goes higher than No. 95, it will be his highest-charting hit in nearly 20 years (since ” 2005's Devils & Dust » reached No. 72).)

The set should run to very strong numbers – but it has two factors working against its chances of a No.1 debut. First, Bryan pushed to release the album on July 4th – last Thursday – instead of the usual Friday drop, which means his first day of stats are counted on this week's chart, not next week's. (Its opening numbers were still big enough on their own for the album to debut at No. 17 on the Billboard 200 on July 13.) More pressingly, the LP is currently only available for sale digitally, with its release on CD and vinyl not due until October 11th. And while “28” is off to a good start, it's no real threat to debut atop the Hot 100 like “I Remember Everything” did.

The album is still expected to follow Zac Bryan – which launched with 200,000 units in its debut week last year – with another six-figure first week, making it a real contender for the top spot next week. But given that the album's first full week of performance was a bit marred by its off-cycle debut, either Bar scene can reach No. 1 may depend on whether it can remain a consistent performer on the stream through the end of the week.

taylor swift, Department of Tormented Poets (Democracy): Department of Tormented Poets has dominated the top of the Billboard 200 since debuting there in early April, fending off Dua Lipa's debut (Radical Optimism), Guna (One from Wun), Billie Eilish (Hit with hard and soft), ATEEZ (Golden Hour: Part 1) and Gracie Abrams (Our secret), all of which debuted at No. 2 behind Taylor Swift's blockbuster. Even in its 11th week of release, Poets remains a very strong performer – posting 114,000 equivalent album units this week, across 31 tracks (in full Anthology edition) continues to generate strong streaming numbers and also sell well across its various editions.

More of these new variants may be on their way to fans this week. On July 7, Swift restocked seven previously available CD versions Poets on its webstore, each with a different exclusive bonus track — which was only available for purchase that day and (according to the webstore) was set to ship on or before July 10, and could affect the tracking week. On Monday, Swift also released two new versions of the album's lead single, Post Malone featuring “Fortnight,” on DSP and digital outlets: a new Cults remix of the song and an acoustic version of it. (The latter was previously available via a limited edition CD of it Poetsand is currently in the top 10 on the iTunes chart.)

Taylor Swift has been fighting hard to hold on to pole position on the chart for over two months now, and she's sure to make Zach Bryan earn the spot if he wants to take it from her with his new album. Plus, Swift has special reason to be motivated to go for a 12th frame at No. 1 for her new set: With one more week at the top, Poets would break a three-way tie with 2008 Fearless and 2014 1989 to become the longest-running album on the Billboard 200 in the pop superstar's entire career.