Will Morgan Wallen Give Post Malone The “Help” He Needs For Another Number 1 Debut?

The contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top Advertising sign charts and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for next Billboard Hot 100 dated May 25), even with massive hits bursting to the top of the charts, a big new collaboration could threaten to top them all.

Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Republic/Mercury/Big Loud): Undoubtedly the biggest debut of the week will come from these genre-bending Republic partners. While 2010 superstar Post Malone's commercial fortunes are greatly reduced this decade – 2023 Austin became the first LP of his career to fail to produce a single Top 10 Hot 100 hit – he's been buoyed this year by collaborations with arguably the three biggest names in modern popular music: Beyoncé (the Cowboy Carter stand out “Levii's Jeans”), Taylor Swift (n Department of Tormented Poets first single and two-week Hot 100 No. 1 “Fortnight”) and now Morgan Wallen.

Post's latest group of stars looks like it may be on its way to follow “Fortnight” to the top of the Hot 100. “I Had Some Help” — aptly titled — topped the daily and actual charts on Spotify, Apple Music and iTunes shortly after its release on Friday (May 10), which is no small feat in this busy one time for pop music. And while brand new songs usually struggle to compete in the radio department, “I Had Some Help” has received such a big hug on the airwaves that it's actually already ahead of most of its main competitors there: It's garnered a 17.3 million total -Format airplay impressions during its first four days of wide release (May 10-13), according to Luminate, and it made an immediate impact—enough at country radio to debut at No. 18 on Country Airplay this week's chart with just one day's worth of play (May 9).

In another week — like, say, almost any other week in May from 2020 to 2023 — “I Had Some Help” would have debuted as a no-brainer. But of course, this has been an unusually busy season for pop music, and “Help” will need to maintain its initial momentum throughout the week to secure a pole position entry. If it starts atop the Hot 100, it will already mark the fifth different song to top the chart in the last six weeks and the 13th different song overall in 20 chart weeks this year – compared to 2022 and 2023, where there were just seven total in the first 20 weeks of charts.

Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): It's a little ridiculous that “Not Like Us” will really have to work to defend its title on the Hot 100 next week, as it debuted at the top of the chart with just five days of tracking this week and didn't it should slow down a lot the first full week of consumption. Ten days after its release and the song is still pulling in over five million daily streams on Spotify in this country alone – a huge number for most songs even on release day – and remains at the top of both the Apple Music charts in real time as much as YouTube Trending Music , an absolute streaming juggler across the board.

But where it lags behind “I Had Some Help” is in sales and radio airplay. The song has fallen out of iTunes' top three, as “Help” dominated that chart just hours after its release, a clear front-runner for next week's top digital song sales. And while the rest of the culture has already adopted “Not Like Us” as the Song of the Late Spring, radio was slow to get going: The track garnered 6 million across all formats from May 10-13, just a third of appeal for Post and Wallen's latest, though it's a contender for next week's top 50 radio songs list.

There are, of course, cards Kendrick Lamar has to play to get the upper hand on “Help” — a video for the song has been rumored, and a potential remix with another of Drake's old foes would no doubt go a long way after the release. . But with the headline-grabbing feud largely fizzled out over the past week, it might feel like too much for Lamar to keep pushing his nemesis — and once first-week sales dip for “Help,” “Not Like Us” may regain the edge after next week anyway.

Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby” (ISO Supermacy/PULSE Records): “Do not forget me!” mocks Tommy Richman in soft, rich falsetto. As much as next week's Hot 100 race is a showdown between longtime chart heavyweights Kendrick Lamar and Post Malone and Morgan Wallen, you can't count out the No. 2 song in the country in the decision. “Million Dollar Baby” has actually reclaimed the top spot on Spotify's daily chart – also with over 5 million daily plays – while remaining in the top three on Apple Music and iTunes, already competing with Teddy Swims' “Lose Control” and Benson Boone Things' 'Beautiful' for 2023's biggest hit by a previously unproven artist.

However, radio was a bit slower to pick up the memo with Richman than it was with the breakthrough smashes of these other two artists. The song is growing on airwaves, but only gradually: The song garnered just 3.4 million radio plays from May 10-13, up from 1.9 million the previous week (May 3-9), but still very much lower than its main competitors. It seems almost impossible that the top 40 can resist “Million Dollar Baby” forever, so its moment may still be coming down the line — it could debut on the Pop Airplay chart next week — but while it's on ( really crazy) its streaming and sales are peaking, it may still be difficult for the song to find its way over the top.

IN THE MIX

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Another of the feel-good stories for 2024 is singer-songwriter and Cowboy Carter alum Shaboozey, whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” reached No. 3 on the Hot 100 and remains one of the best-streamed and best-selling songs in the country this week. Radio, again, is just getting in on the party: “A Bar Song” garnered 5.5 million radio impressions May 10-13, up from 5 million the previous week, and in a pop landscape as crowded (and increasingly ) will probably need an extra boost to break even further.

Sabrina Carpenter, 'Espresso' (Island/Republic): You want a growing success this radio is fully embracing? Check out Sabrina Carpenter's “Espresso,” already the No. 4 hit so far on the Hot 100, which climbs 20-13 on the Pop Airplay chart this week and is up 21% in all-format audiences 10-13 of May compared to the equivalent four days in the previous week. Radio should only continue to grow for this song as the weather warms, but its streaming and sales are falling behind the competition – and with a new major release entering the mix seemingly every week this season, the “ Espresso' may need to be moved around while it's still hot.

Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” (Democracy): You remember her; Taylor Swift's blockbuster Department of Tormented Poets had just a week of cultural ubiquity before the Drake-Kendrick Lamar feud resurfaced, and while “Fortnight” has dominated the Hot 100 for two weeks now, it's still streaming and selling quite well (and also moving to the top 10 on Pop Airplay this week), it feels a bit like its moment has already passed. Whether Swift's next move is to continue pushing “Fortnight” or try to boost one of the certified fan favorites Poets tracks up to his level — “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” ranks second on this week's Hot 100 at No. 15 — remains to be seen, but we'd be foolish to assume you've seen the last of his Swift in this conversation this season.